Spin Dictators

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Early in the twenty-first century, global politics hit a major milestone. For the first time, the number of democracies in the world surged past the tally of authoritarian states. As this seismic “third wave” crested, experts identified 98 countries with free government, compared to 80 still controlled by dictators.1 The optimism was infectious. New information technologies, globalization, and economic development seemed to be calling “time’s up” on strongman rule. As countries modernized, tyranny was becoming obsolete.

The celebrations did not last long. In fact, they hardly got started. Within a few years, the advance of freedom had petered out, yielding what some quickly termed a “democratic recession.” A dramatic financial crisis, born in the United States, sent the global economy crashing, undercutting faith in Western governance. By 2019, the number of democracies had fallen to 87 while that of dictatorships was back up to 92. In the West, liberalism was proving little match for populism, while in the East, all eyes were turned to China’s meteoric rise. The millennial exuberance gave way to a sense of gloom.

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